Must-hit-by progressives
How must-hit-by slots work
Updated
Short answer
A must-hit-by slot has a progressive jackpot meter with a printed ceiling, for example "must hit by $500". The jackpot is guaranteed to pay somewhere between its reset amount and that ceiling. As the meter climbs toward the ceiling, the range where it can still hit gets smaller, so the chance it pays soon goes up. That is the value advantage players look for.
The mechanics in plain words
Each must-hit-by meter starts at a reset value and grows as people play. In most designs the point where it will hit is set at random somewhere between the reset and the ceiling. You cannot see that point, but you can see how much room is left. A meter at $490 on a must-hit-by-$500 jackpot has much less room left than one at $300.
Many machines carry more than one must-hit-by meter, often a small one that hits often and a bigger one that grows slowly. Each one is its own calculation.
Why close to the ceiling is not automatically a play
- Getting to the jackpot costs money. Every spin at your bet size is paid for, and the machine is still keeping its share on the base game.
- The meter only grows by a fraction of each bet, so the last stretch can take a lot of spins.
- Denomination and bet size change the math. The same meter can be worth chasing at one bet and not at another.
- Someone else can hit it first. On a bank of linked machines, you are not the only one playing toward it.
How to use this
Advantage players set an entry point for each game: the meter level where the value on screen is worth the cost of playing it out. Below that level they walk. Jay Fructose publishes his entry points for the games in his book, and Slot Check reads a photo of the meters and compares them for you, so you get GOLD PLAY, PLAY, MINI PLAY, CLOSE or WALK with the math shown. It also works on any machine that prints a must-hit-by meter.
Even past the line, the jackpot can land on the next player, and the base game still loses on average. Read what advantage play on slots is for the bigger picture.
Common questions
Do must-hit-by slots always hit before the ceiling?
That is the design: the jackpot pays at or before the printed amount. The exact point is random and hidden, so you only know how much room is left, not when it will hit.
How close to the must-hit-by amount should the meter be?
It depends on the game, the denomination and your bet size, which is why there is no single number. Jay publishes entry points for the games he covers, and Slot Check compares a photo of the meters to them.
Are must-hit-by slots a good bet?
Only in the right state. A meter far from its ceiling is like any other slot, and even a meter close to it can cost more to reach than it pays. Most of the time the right move is to walk.
Slot Check is entertainment and education for adults 21+, not gambling advice. Slots are random and even good plays lose. Help is available at 1-800-GAMBLER.